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CARBON REWARD & UN SDGs
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🌦️ Climate 🏭 Economics⏳ The Future
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If the GCR floor price is evaluated using a probability distribution function which (in turn) is estimated from Integrated Assessment Models (IAM), what discount rate is used in running the IAMs?
Hi Robert, when the proposed “carbon exchange authority” does the modelling assessments (i.e. when they hire experts to do the modelling assessments), those assessors will be tasked with simulating the various conventional policies that are most likely to be implemented in the future. For this reason, the assessors are not required to assume a time discount rate for the Social Cost of Carbon (SCC) because their work does not involve optimising the carbon tax (i.e. they do not need to estimate the ideal carbon tax). Their goal will be to estimate the floor price of a Global Carbon Reward that can shift the world to net-zero quickly enough to stay below an agreed maximum level of global warming (e.g. less than 2C with 67% probability).
The models that they will use might be described as Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) but their models will be designed and used somewhat differently to that which is needed to evaluate/optimise the carbon tax. Also, they might use other methods in addition to IAMs, because the methodology is different, and is based on risk assessments and cost effectiveness.
Traditional IAMs that employ time-discounting are actually employing cost-vs-benefit analysis to estimate the SCC. (1) Cost-vs-benefit analysis and (2) cost effectiveness for risk management, are distinctly different decision-making approaches for policy development. Background on these two approaches is well described in some early IPCC reports, but the general public is not aware of these options because the “standard theory” does not offer an explicit reason to employ cost effectiveness for setting a price on carbon. Best, Delton
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